Fresh from banging in winners last weekend, Jones Knows is back with his Premier League predictions and thinks Manchester United can get the better of Leeds on Super Sunday.
Wolves vs Burnley, Sunday 12.00pm
Burnley are a big price here. Sky Bet are dangling a very temping carrot at 3/1 for the away win.
Sean Dyche’s boys might be arriving on the back of three straight defeats but performances have been arguably up there with the best they’ve produced this season.
When Burnley are in a rut, it’s easy to tell as they become very ponderous in the final third. This is not one of those occasions as Dyche’s men are causing huge problems for teams with their direct approach into Chris Wood reaping lots of reward.
They looked firmly in control at 1-1 at Manchester United last weekend until an unfortunate deflected Mason Greenwood goal knocked the stuffing out them. Burnley’s metrics over the last six fixtures in terms of shots, expected goals and big chances created have them performing alongside the likes of Leeds in the top 10.
With their backs against the wall and points still required to stay up, Burnley are at their most dangerous. Away win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2
BETTING ANGLE: Burnley to win (3/1 with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Manchester United, Sunday 2.00pm, live on Sky Sports
Leeds remain a fantastic team to watch but boy do they offer up space for the opposition, especially in central areas where Kalvin Phillips has the job of three players. Twenty-four players have managed to fire four or more shots in a fixture against Leeds this season from central shooting positions. John Stones and Fernandinho both managed to have four shots on goal in the recent fixture with Manchester City, while Jonjo Shelvey and Said Benrahma have both managed to fire four or more shots when lining up against Marcelo Bielsa’s men.
As seen in the corresponding fixture, Scott McTominay, who scored twice, isn’t afraid of pulling the trigger when given licence to roam and he is of interest in the player shots market offered up by Sky Bet. Of course, there’s also the added bonus of McTominay being strong in the air – an area where Leeds are significantly vulnerable from set pieces. There’s an array of bets to consider – McTominay to have two or more shots at 13/8 with Sky Bet and his price of 7/1 for two shots on target fit the bill – but I’m happy to follow the recent trend of players racking up four shots against Leeds, so will jump on the 14/1 with Sky Bet.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-3
BETTING ANGLE: Scott McTominay to have four or more shots (14/1 with Sky Bet)
Carabao Cup final – Manchester City vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Ryan Mason is in at the deep end. Here he meets Pep Guardiola in a major cup final in just his second game as a boss and he has to try and plot Pep’s downfall, probably, without his best player. Gulp.
Guardiola, who is taking charge of his 694th senior game as a manager, has won 13 of his previous 14 finals, conceding just five goals in those games and never conceding more than twice in any of those encounters. With Harry Kane a major doubt, finding a killer route to goal will be a huge problem for Spurs against this City defence, who haven’t managed a clean sheet in their last five but are still restricting oppositions to low probability chances. In their last nine matches only Chelsea (1.01) have amassed an expected goals figure higher than 1.00 when facing Manchester City. And City’s combined total of 1.39 from their last four league games in terms of expected goals against is still by far makes the tightest defence in the Premier League. The process remains brick-wall-like.
However, City haven’t scored more than twice in their last eight games, scoring just 13 goals in that period. This ‘job done’ mentality is especially relevant in one of game scenarios like this one. It points to a low-scoring – yet probably comfortable – Manchester City win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0
BETTING ANGLE: Manchester City to win by exactly one goal (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Play Super 6 Extra: Win £5,000!
Super 6 Extra is similar to the game we all know and love, but the beauty of our Sunday special lies in having to correctly predict the answers to six questions to scoop the £5,000 jackpot. Manchester City vs Tottenham is the featured game this week.
- Can you predict the full-time score?
- Can you predict the half-time score?
- Who will score the first goal?
- Who will receive the first card?
- How many corners will be taken?
- Who will receive the Man of the Match award?
Aston Villa vs West Brom, Sunday 7.00pm
West Brom were really vulnerable to Leicester’s clever movement in attack on Thursday with Kyle Bartley and Dara O’Shea particularly uncomfortable at having to defend a yard higher in what was a must-win game for the Baggies. When the balance isn’t right between their attack and defence, West Brom are an easy team to create good chances against. Villa should be confident of finding the in-form Ollie Watkins in dangerous areas even without Jack Grealish to call on.
There aren’t many better strikers around when it comes to pulling defenders out of position with expert off-the-ball movement and I can foresee Watkins following in Kelechi Iheanacho’s footsteps from Thursday. The Nigerian had eight shots on goal vs the Baggies, scoring once. Watkins, who has three goals in his last four games, should be backed to have a good night. I’m chancing my arm and giving the 66/1 for him to score a hat-trick a go.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 3-0
BETTING ANGLE: Ollie Watkins to score a hat-trick (66/1 with Sky Bet)
Leicester vs Crystal Palace, Monday 8.00pm, live on Sky Sports
This is a big night for Leicester. When you look at their fixtures to come nothing less than maximum points will do up against yawn-inducing Palace. Brendan Rodgers won’t want to be going into the final three fixtures – Manchester United (a), Chelsea (a) and Tottenham (a) – with work to do.
I’m still keen to take Crystal Palace on between now and the end of the season. There’s a huge amount of uncertainty at the club. Who will be in charge next season? Roy Hodgson’s contract is up and there doesn’t seem to be much movement on that front. Added to that, up to 10 first-team players are also coming to the end of their deals, so with the club all-but safe from relegation a similar scenario to last season where Palace lost eight of their last nine games could be on the cards.
This match has the same make-up as their Thursday night game with West Brom, although you’d expect Palace to defend with much more authority than the Baggies. An area of betting interest for me will revolve around James Maddison, who looked fit and firing in midweek on his return from injury playing in a free role behind two strikers – his perfect position. No player in the Premier League averages more shots from outside the box per 90 minutes than Maddison (2.16) and with Palace likely to defend deep, he’s going to get ample opportunities to work the goalkeeper. The 3/1 for him to register two shots on target from outside the area looks a fair bet.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: James Maddison to have two or more shots on target from outside the area (3/1 with Sky Bet)
How did Jones Know do this weekend?
Arsenal 0-1 Everton – JONES KNOWS PREDICTED 1-2 & his Betting Angle was: Everton to finish top six (8/1, now 3/1)
Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle – JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-2
West Ham 0-1 Chelsea – JONES KNOWS PREDICTED 0-2 & his betting angle was: Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Sheffield United 1-0 Brighton – JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2